Archive
This is archive only now - more recent commentaries are listed on the front page of the website
2020 - China’s year of Europe, ECFR commentary
January 13, 2020
Transatlantic cooperation on Asia, and the Trump administration; GMF report
October 30, 2019
Article in Foreign Affairs on Europe, China and the transatlantic relationship
April 3, 2019
Article in War on the Rocks on China, Imran Khan and the Pakistani elections
July 27, 2018
Article in the Print on the limits to Chinese support to Pakistan and the FATF
March 6, 2018
Article in Foreign Affairs on the pushback to Belt and Road in South Asia
February 16, 2018
Article in the Print on China and the Maldives
February 10, 2018
Op-ed in the South China Morning Post on whether Pakistan can play the China card
August 27, 2017
Article in the Print on China and Afghanistan in light of the new US South Asia policy
August 23, 2017
Interview with the Wire on China-India relations and the US
August 4, 2017
Article in Asia Policy on CPEC
July 2017
Reading list: China and the Liberal Order, for "Out of Order"
April 5, 2017
The Counter-Enlightenment and the Great Powers - an "Out of Order" blog
March 13, 2017
Interview on CPEC in the Quint / the Third Pole
October 13, 2016
CPEC: Road to the Future?
The Herald | October 16, 2016
On misconceptions around CPEC
As Indo-Pak Tensions Simmer, China Adopts Diplomatic Balancing Act
The Wire | September 30, 2016
On China's crisis diplomacy in South Asia
Interview in The Friday Times on CPEC and regional geopolitics
September 2, 2016
UK China Policy After Brexit
World Politics Review | August 17, 2016
GMFUS Transatlantic Take | August 31, 2016
Asian Views of Brexit
GMFUS Transatlantic Take | June 21, 2016
Why all the major Asian powers want the UK to stay in the EU
Why China is Playing a Tougher Game on the NSG This Time Around
The Wire | June 20, 2016
China's approach to India's NSG entry - predicting Beijing's block
Testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on China and South Asia
USCC | March 10, 2016
The rebalancing of the China-Pakistan relationship
Interview: Pakistan not keen on Taliban's Complete Takeover of Afghanistan
Tehelka | February 6, 2016
Interview on China and South Asia
China's Role in the Middle East
Cipher Brief | January 25, 2016
The Middle East is now the region where many of the most significant shifts in China’s global security role are underway
Is China a Credible Partner in Fighting Terror?
China File / Foreign Policy | November 24, 2015
Short on China's approach to counter-terrorism after the ISIS execution of Chinese hostage Fan Jinghui
Interview: on China-Pakistan ties
The Diplomat | November 19. 2015
ETIM, Afghanistan, Balochistan and other subjects
How China helped Pakistan build the bomb
The Telegraph | November 15, 2015
Chapter excerpt - the China-Pakistan nuclear relationship
For U.K., China Ties Worth Costs of Breaking Ranks With West
World Politics Review | October 23, 2015
Article on negative reactions to the UK's China policy and the risk that it works
The China factor for Pakistan
Cipher Brief | October 7, 2015
Q&A on China-Pakistan relations and what it means for the United States
Surviving the Slowdown
Newsweek Pakistan | September 7, 2015
Column on why China's economic downturn may be good news for Pakistan
What Now for China's Afghanistan Strategy?
the Diplomat | September 1, 2015
On how Chinese policy in the region is moving after Mullah Omar's death and the Kabul attacks
China's Man in the Taliban
Foreign Policy | August 3, 2015
On the death of Mullah Omar and what it means for China.
China does want returns on its economic investments but it’s willing to accept a certain risk premium with Pakistan
MyIndMakers | July 31, 2015
Interview about The China-Pakistan Axis and geopolitical rivalries in Asia.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will transform the region, predicts China expert
Scroll.in | July 9, 2015
Interview on the China Pakistan Economic Coridor and its implications for Afghanistan and India.
From Bystander to Peacemaker
Berlin Policy Journal | April 27, 2015
On China, the Taliban and reconciliation in Afghanistan.
A New Era for China and Pakistan
China File | April 23, 2015
On Xi Jinping's visit to Pakistan
Two birds, one $46 billion stone
Indian Express | April 22, 2015
China's promised investments into Pakistan have often failed to materialize. The recent announcements are likely to break that trend.
La Chine est préoccupée par les retombées du désengagement américain en Afghanistan (China is concerned about the impact of U.S. engagement in Afghanistan)
Le Monde | April 22, 2015
As China's President Xi Jinping wraps up a historic two-day visit to Pakistan that saw the signing of deals worth $46 billion, DW talks to expert Andrew Small about what the trip means for bilateral ties and the region.
Xi visit takes Sino-Pakistani ties to new level
Deutsche Welle | April 21, 2015
As China's President Xi Jinping wraps up a historic two-day visit to Pakistan that saw the signing of deals worth $46 billion, DW talks to expert Andrew Small about what the trip means for bilateral ties and the region.
中国与巴基斯坦：非盟友的轴心关系 (China-Pakistan: an axis of non-allies)
Dongfang Daily | April 14, 2015
中巴关系有时候被形容成“有两条腿的凳子”：在政治和安全方面很强，但在经济方面很弱。如果巴基斯坦真有能力变成丝绸之路经济带和海上丝绸之路有意义的一部分，那就有可能形成一个双边加强合作的了不起的循环。反之，尽管双方的安全联系依然至关重要，但会产生一定程度的挫败感，因为缺乏潜力，更广泛的双边关系会持续下跌。
China-Pakistan: A Strategic Relationship in the Shadows
Yale Global | April 7, 2015
The China-Pakistan relationship has inspired plenty of florid language, invoking “iron brothers” whose “all-weather friendship” is “higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the oceans.” Yet the public demonstrations of this closeness have often fallen short of the rhetoric.
Chinese Foreign Policy Comes of Age
New York Times | March 26, 2015
China’s public offer to mediate peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government marks a notable departure in Chinese foreign policy. It is the first time Beijing is taking a genuine leadership role, on its own initiative, on a geopolitical issue both sensitive and significant.
China, the United States, and the question of Afghanistan
Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission | March 18, 2015
China-Pakistan Axis: "the best may be yet to come"
Rediff | February 16, 2015
Andrew Small talks to Rediff about the future of China-Pakistan relations. "Even though both nations have been at the centre of consistent strategic attention their association..has neither been probed or scrutinised as it should have. Andrew Small's much praised book, The China-Pakistan Axis intends to change all that."
Beijing's support for Afghan reconciliation 'more of a burden than an opportunity'
Deutsche Welle | February 12, 2015
China has offered to support the Afghan government in reconciling with the Taliban. But while Beijing brings major diplomatic and economic weight to the table, the prospects of success are slim, as Andrew Small tells DW.
Author Says Militancy Problematic For China Pakistan Relations
Radio Free Europe | February 9, 2015
Andrew Small talks to Radio Free Europe about the China-Pakistan Axis. Small says the presence of Uyghur militants in Pakistan has been a major source of tension between Beijing and Islamabad.
Sinosphere Q. and A.: Andrew Small on the China-Pakistan Relationship
New York Times | February 6, 2015
In an interview with the NYT's Jane Perlez, Andrew Small talks about the irritants in the China-Pakistan relationship, and the upcoming visit of President Xi Jinping to Pakistan.
Sound byte: ‘Pak-China ties as close as Beijing wants them to be’
Dawn | January 31, 2015
In an exclusive chat with Dawn, Mr Small talks about the myth of a friendship that is higher than the highest mountains and describes how the balance of power in Asia is shifting after the recent Modi-Obama meeting.
The Sino-Pakistani axis: Asia's 'little understood' relationship
Deutsche Welle | January 15, 2015
China and Pakistan have been described as "all weather friends," but the nature of their ties remains secretive. DW talks to analyst Andrew Small, about some of the most sensitive aspects of this strategic relationship.
China: two kinds of assertiveness
FRIDE Report | January 2015
While China's assertiveness in East Asia is one of the principle sources of disorder in the region, elsewhere a more assertive Chinese approach to addressing security threats is beginning to translate into constructive contributions to global stability.
A Transatlantic Pakistan Policy: Economic Development
GMF Report | November 2014
The West's withdrawal from Afghanistan should be seen as an opportunity to reposition its relationship with Pakistan around the country's potential as an emerging market, rather than purely through the prism of concerns about terrorism.
The Xinjiangistan Connection
Foreign Policy | July 30, 2014
With terror attacks on the rise, officials in Beijing are increasingly worried that Pakistan is an incubator of Islamic radicalism across China.
Ukraine, Russia and the China option
GMF Paper | May 2014
Beijing has sought to take a neutral stance in the stand-off between Russia and the West. Yet as the recent $400 billion Sino-Russian energy deal illustrates, China’s economic decisions will inevitably have major implications.
Regional dynamics and strategic concerns in South Asia: China's role
CSIS Background Paper | January 2014
China is increasingly concerned about the strategic dynamics in South Asia and is likely to use its economic clout to help stabilize and strengthen its allies in the region over the coming period.
Afghanistan: the view from China
EUISS Alert | January 2014
After more than a decade on the margins of international efforts to shape the country’s future, this summer China will take the diplomatic driving seat as it hosts the Istanbul Ministerial Process, the major regional conclave between Afghanistan and its neighbours, in Tianjin in July.
Why is China talking to the Taliban?
Foreign Policy | June 21, 2013
Karzai's derailment of this week's planned peace talks with the Taliban may have been a disappointment to Washington's hopes of ending its longest war-but it disappointed Beijing, too.
Towards a transatlantic relationship in the Asia Pacific (with Peter Sparding)
EUISS Report | December 18, 2012
The United States and Europe are increasing focused on strengthening their economic relations in the Asia Pacific. The transatlantic partners have a shared interest to ensure that – despite a natural level of competition – individual strategies are mutually reinforcing in shaping the economic environment of the region.
China, Brazil and the Southern Atlantic (with Amy Studdart)
GMF Report | November 29, 2012
In a report on China and India in the Southern Atlantic, this chapter lays out how the relationship between China and Brazil is shaping the Southern Atlantic politically and economically.
Untapped trilateralism: common economic and security interests of the EU, the US and China (with Bates Gill)
EU ECRAN Report | November 8, 2012
in spite of the top three global actors engaging across a complex range of political, economic, and military issues, a greater degree of joint purpose and collaborative response remains elusive.
China's Afghan moment
Foreign Policy | October 3, 2012
As the United States draws down in Afghanistan, China is finally moving in.
Q&A on the China-Pakistan relationship
Wikistrat "Ask A Senior Analyst" | August 28, 2012
Every week, Wikistrat’s Facebook followers engage in a 24-hour exclusive Q&A drill with one of Wikistrat’s Senior Analysts via Facebook. Andrew answered questions like "How does Islamic terrorism affect Sino-Pakistan relations?", "Are U.S.-Pakistan and China-Pakistan relations comparable?" and "Is China signaling its willingness to develop a security presence in a post-2014 Afghanistan?"
What next in a post-Doha world? Lessons from EU, U.S. and Chinese trade policy strategies (with David Kleimann and Joe Guinan)
EUI Global Governance Programme Policy Brief | June 2012
With the WTO hamstrung and the Doha Round dead in all but name, the future direction of international trade and investment liberalisation will be largely determined by the world's economic superpowers.
China: the invisible dragon in the room
GMF Transatlantic Take | June 6, 2012
At last weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue, China did much to bear out James Joyce’s maxim that absence is the highest form of presence. In deciding not to send their defense minister and offering only an elliptical justification, China made itself the subject of even greater speculation and theorizing than usual.
The liberal order and the Chinese public
Global Trends 2030 | June 5, 2012
At last weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue, China did much to bear out James Joyce’s maxim that absence is the highest form of presence. In deciding not to send their defense minister and offering only an elliptical justification, China made itself the subject of even greater speculation and theorizing than usual.
China, the Euro crisis and transatlantic cooperation
Testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission | May 2, 2012
Despite the euro crisis, the European Union has been toughening up its stance in its economic relationship with China. For the United States, the opportunities to coordinate with the EU on economic policy responses loom larger than the risks that Europe’s need for Chinese money will act as a constraint.
A Europe that can still say no? China and the eurozone crisis
GMF Policy Brief | January 9, 2012
China’s potential involvement in the eurozone crisis has triggered a wave of speculation about the political, economic, and strategic implications of China “buying up” or “bailing out” Europe. But the reality has been less dramatic. China did not swing in behind the European Financial Stability Facility. There has been no sign of the EU offering major concessions to China in the hope that this will smooth the way for Chinese cash. The broader state of EU-China relations will depend significantly on how China and the EU deal with each other through a period that is not just an economic crisis for Europe but an existential one.
China's Role in Afghanistan (English, Danish)
RÆSON | January 3, 2012
Andrew Small discussed China's role in neighboring Afghanistan with the Danish political news magazine RÆSON.
All-Weather concerns: how much can Pakistan expect from China?
Indian Express | October 24, 2011
The last few months have been rife with speculation about Beijing’s willingness to fill the void if American financial and military support for Pakistan were to be curtailed. Far from brimming with strategic potential, the China-Pakistan relationship is now increasingly pushing up against its limits.
How all-weather are Sino-Pakistani ties?
GMF Transatlantic Take | August 10, 2011
Since the Abbottabad raid, each negative twist in ties with Washington has been followed by an upsurge of speculation about a deepening Sino-Pakistani partnership—much of it fanned by Islamabad. A recent statement that, following the suspension of US military aid, “China will help meet this gap” was of a piece with the Pakistani defence minister’s more theatrical claims about China’s takeover of Gwadar port. The message to the United States and the Pakistani public is clear: we have other options.This has put Beijing in a tricky spot.
China's foreign policy: challenges and players
Testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission | April 21, 2011
In a hearing at the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, GMF's Andrew Small gave testimony on Beijing's increased international assertiveness.
China steps forward, moves backward
GMF Transatlantic Take | January 19, 2011
Beijing has long managed its foreign relations with a laser-like focus on ensuring an advantageous environment for its economic development and an unchecked accumulation of power, in part by reassuring its neighbors and the United States of its peaceful intentions. But since China’s successful emergence from the global economic crisis, important constituencies have decided that the moment for biding their time has passed. So Beijing has pushed to convert its strengthened position into more tangible political rewards and has taken an increasingly uncompromising stance in its relations with the rest of the world.
Beijing's behavior increases risk of war on the Korean Peninsula
GMF Transatlantic Take | December 9, 2010
Beijing's leadership role in the Six Party Talks on North Korea once embodied U.S. hopes that China would become a responsible stakeholder in issues of regional and global security. But its behavior toward an erratic and belligerent Pyongyang increasingly belies them.
NATO and the Asian powers: cooperation and its limits
SWP Conference on Asian Security | October 1, 2010
The patchwork of initiatives established between NATO and Asia has never been framed by any overarching region-specific rationale. Insofar as there is a strategic imperative driving outreach in the region, it has been an effort to draw in "global partners" into closer cooperation with existing alliance operations - primarily in Afghanistan - rather than any broader process of identifying shared security concerns either with the major Asian powers or even with traditional partners in the region.
Beijing is worth a missed dinner - Lady Ashton goes to China
GMF Transatlantic Take | September 2, 2010
Baroness Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, chose to pass up dinner at the White House and instead pressed ahead with her trip to China, where she inaugurated a new strategic dialogue with her Chinese counterpart. Despite some consternation in Paris, Ashton’s decision reflects a well-founded conviction that China policy is one of the few areas where the new post-Lisbon foreign policy machinery could make a real difference.
Afghanistan: the consequences of a "conceptual withdrawal"
GMF Transatlantic Take, Spiegel Online, Real Clear World | July 29, 2010
"We have moved from a narrative, which lasted for years, that everything was fine when it wasn’t to a narrative that everything is going wrong when it isn’t.” This lament from a former Western official, who, like others quoted in this piece, did not speak for attribution, summed up the frustrations of many in Kabul about the growing disconnect between the political timetables inside and outside the country. The concern is not only that the various transition deadlines are unrealistic, but that their very existence is creating counterproductive pressures that will make them even harder to achieve.
How the EU is seen in Asia, and what to do about it
European View | July 28, 2010
In Asia's major capitals, the last few years have seen marked shifts in perspectives on the European Union. Not so long ago the EU was viewed as everything from a rising political power to a model for regional order. The combination of economic stagnation and the painful process of fixing the EU's institutional arrangements has been part of the problem.
Intensifying China-Pakistan ties
Council on Foreign Relations | July 7, 2010
On Wednesday, China and Pakistan signed pacts on cooperation in agriculture, healthcare, justice, media, economy, and technology. Both sides also vowed to step up joint efforts against terrorism. But while the relationship between the two countries is strong, it's shadowed by Beijing's concerns about Pakistan's security threat and its impact on Chinese investment and personnel in Pakistan.
China in check? The limits to Beijing's assertiveness
GMF Transatlantic Take | July 7, 2010
The U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue capped off a three-month period that has returned the Sino-U.S. relationship to a state of fragile equilibrium. Strategic mistrust remains pervasive and there are few issues on which the two sides genuinely see eye-to-eye. But the missteps of 2009 provided some important lessons for better management of future differences.
China presses ahead with Pakistan nuclear deal - and contemplates U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan
GMF Blog | July 6, 2010
Andrew Small blogs on his recent trip to China to discuss Afghanistan and Pakistan, including interviews on the Chashma-3 and 4 deal with Pakistan.
China's caution on Afghanistan-Pakistan
Washington Quarterly | July 2010
Although the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan looks like a prime candidate for closer cooperation between the United States and China, prospects of pursuing complementary policies will remain limited until China fundamentally reappraises its strategy for dealing with extremism in the region.
"No-one is going to be bought off by a tiny revaluation"
Spiegel Online | June 26, 2010
In the run-up to the G-20 summit, China has tried to placate the United States with a revaluation of its currency. But the move is not a real change of course, explains the German Marshall Fund's Andrew Small in a Spiegel Online interview. He argues that the Chinese leadership is more concerned with deflecting external criticism than with the health of the global economy.
Beijing Blinks First: the currency debate in diplomatic context
VoxEU | April 16, 2010
While the U.S. Treasury's decision on whether to label China a currency manipulator is inevitably political in nature, rarely has it ever been so geopolitically loaded. In previous years, it has mainly been the economic relationship at stake. This time the implications run from Middle Eastern security to nuclear proliferation, and will do much to define the broader shape of the U.S.-China relationship in the coming years.
Dealing with a more assertive China
GMF Transatlantic Take, Al Jazeera, Forbes, The Diplomat, Foreign Policy | February 8, 2010
While the U.S. Treasury's decision on whether to label China a currency manipulator is inevitably political in nature, rarely has it ever been so geopolitically loaded. In previous years, it has mainly been the economic relationship at stake. This time the implications run from Middle Eastern security to nuclear proliferation, and will do much to define the broader shape of the U.S.-China relationship in the coming years.
The New Superpower: 'the Chinese are unready by their own admission' for global leadership
Spiegel Online | January 29, 2010
The United States and China have grown so powerful that people around the world speak reverentially of a "G-2." But there are cracks in the alliance, as the German Marshall Fund's Andrew Small explains in a Spiegel Online interview. Frustration is growing in the United States over Beijing's lack of cooperation on economic issues.
A gift (in disguise) to Europe and Japan: the G2
GMF Transatlantic Take | November 18, 2009
A 'G2' is unlikely. Substantial difference between the United States and China make accord difficult to reach, but discussion about the concept puts pressure on China to be more globally responsible - and that is a good thing for Europe and Japan.
Afghanistan-Pakistan: bringing China (back) in
GMF Transatlantic Take | October 23, 2009
Of all the regional actors engaged in Afghanistan and Pakistan, China's role is perhaps the most opaque. Alternately coaxed as a potential savior and condemned as a parasitic free-rider, the transatlantic allies have not yet worked out how to harness Beijing's undoubted influence and economic clout. This is not altogether surprising: China's motives are complex and at times contradictory. But if the United States and Europe play their hand well, an opening exists - Beijing's security calculus is changing in ways that are increasingly favorable to greater cooperation.
China's Af-Pak Moment
GMF Policy Brief | May 20, 2009
As the United States and Europe look for additional sources of leverage in Pakistan and Afghanistan, a heightened role for China is one of the most promising-and the least discussed. China's substantial strategic interests in Pakistan, its major investments in both countries, and security concerns that range from narcotics flows to terrorist bases give it many shared stakes with the West. But translating common interests into complementary policies will be a challenge.
Fidel's choice
New York Times | November 27, 2008
It was once said of Fidel Castro that his "stomach is in Moscow but his heart is in Beijing." Now the opposite seems to be true.
"Preventing the Next Cold War" revisited (Dutch)
De Volkskrant | April 21, 2008
The war in Iraq may yet prove to have one lasting and little-noticed benefit: reducing the threat of a new cold war between the United States and China. The weakening of the U.S. global power position that the war induced has led officials in the second Bush administration to turn again and again to seek the support of the country that they labeled a strategic competitor only a few years earlier.
China's changing policies towards rogue states
Testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission | March 18, 2008
Chinese policy towards rogue states has undergone a quiet revolution in the last few years. While China is far from being a genuinely like-minded partner to the United States in dealing with these countries, its cooperation is becoming an increasingly central factor in diplomatic efforts to find solutions to the crises in North Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Burma. The testimony sets out the nature of the shift in Chinese policy, the driving factors, the constraints on its scope, and the implications for U.S. policy.
The U.S. factor in Sino-European relations
Chapter in "China-EU: A Common Future" | December, 2007
For Europe and China alike, the most important bilateral relationship is with the United States. Although often described as a ‘strategic triangle’, neither the Chinese impact on the transatlantic relationship nor Europe’s role in the Sino-US relationship is remotely comparable to the significance of the United States for the Sino-European relationship.
China's new dictatorship diplomacy (with Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt)
Foreign Affairs | January/February 2008
China is often accused of supporting a string of despots, nuclear proliferators, and genocidal regimes, shielding them from international pressure and thus reversing progress on human rights and humanitarian principles. But over the last two years, Beijing has been quietly overhauling its policies toward pariah states.
Beijing cools on Mugabe (with Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt)
New York Times | May 3, 2007
China, which once perceived the West's condemnation of Mugabe and sanctions against his regime as an economic opportunity, now views its involvement in Zimbabwe as a liability both for its investments and its international reputation.
China, the unlikely human rights champion (with Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt)
Policy Innovations | February 14, 2007
Each time President Hu Jintao concludes a trip to Africa, he leaves a bigger Chinese footprint on the continent. Yet the imprint left by this February's visit is not just a result of the usual choreographed procession of trade deals, largesse, and south-south brotherhood. It also reflects a quiet revolution in Chinese attitudes toward non-interference, exemplified by Hu's most visible push yet for settlement of the Darfur crisis.
China jumps in (with Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt)
International Herald Tribune | February 1, 2007
We are getting used to seeing new faces of Chinese diplomacy and on President Hu Jintao's latest trip to Africa we will see the unlikeliest of all. In making his most visible push for the settlement of the Darfur crisis, Hu will signal a quiet revolution in Chinese attitudes to sovereignty and noninterference, and position China as the protector of the repressed citizens of the region.